Bubbles, Breakups & Basketball: Wacky Economic Indicators That (Kind Of) Work
What do champagne, broken faucets, and abandoned shopping carts have in common? They’re all quirky economic indicators that offer surprising insights into how people feel about money, risk, and uncertainty.
Economics usually brings to mind things like GDP graphs, unemployment rates, and dry debates about interest rates. But sometimes, the economy reveals itself in much stranger ways — like a sudden spike in YouTube searches for how to fix a toilet, or a suspicious drop in champagne sales.
Welcome to the weird and wonderful world of unconventional economic indicators — the little quirks and habits that say, “Something’s up with the economy,” without a single spreadsheet in sight. From busted pipes to abandoned shopping carts, here are five wacky signals that might just be onto something.
DIY Repair Search Index
What It Is: This indicator tracks increases in Google searches like “how to fix a toilet” or “replace a light fixture yourself.” It’s a proxy for how many people are tackling home maintenance on their own.
Behavioral Insight: When the economy tightens, people cut back on hiring help. Instead of calling a plumber or contractor, they roll up their sleeves and try to figure it out themselves — sometimes with duct tape and YouTube. This shift reflects both cost-consciousness and a sense of self-reliance.
Why It Matters: It's one of the earliest signs that households are trying to stretch their budgets. When professional services get traded for elbow grease, it often signals broader anxiety about income or job security.
Champagne Index
What It Is: Tracks sales of champagne and other high-end celebratory items like fine wine, caviar, or designer cakes. When people feel good about the future, they pop bottles. When they don’t, they don’t.
Behavioral Insight: Champagne isn’t just a drink — it’s a ritual. It marks life milestones, raises, weddings, and good news. A decline in champagne sales doesn’t just suggest financial constraint; it signals a collective cooling in optimism and celebration.
Why It Matters: This index speaks volumes about discretionary income and sentiment, especially among higher earners. It also captures something harder to quantify: joy. When people stop celebrating, the economy feels heavy — even if the data hasn’t caught up yet.
Divorce Rates
What It Is: This measures changes in the number of divorces over time, particularly during or after economic downturns. While recessions don’t directly cause breakups, financial stress is a well-documented relationship strain.
Behavioral Insight: When money becomes a major source of tension, relationships often fracture. However, divorce itself can be expensive, so spikes may actually come after the worst financial period passes — a delayed symptom of earlier hardship.
Why It Matters: The economy isn’t just about dollars — it’s about households, decisions, and stress. Divorce data is a messy but emotionally revealing metric of how deeply financial pressure can impact personal lives.
Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate
What It Is: In e-commerce, this measures how often shoppers add items to their cart but don’t complete the purchase. Think of it as window shopping — online edition — with a side of financial hesitation.
Behavioral Insight: People are clearly interested in buying. They’ve done the browsing, made selections, and nearly clicked “purchase.” But something — usually money — stops them. Rising abandonment rates are often a red flag for growing financial uncertainty, even when job numbers look stable.
Why It Matters: It offers a real-time view into consumer anxiety. While surveys and quarterly reports lag, cart data is immediate. It’s one of the most honest reflections of modern economic psychology.
Rec League Registration Decline
What It Is: Tracks drops in participation for adult recreational leagues, like local softball teams, soccer clubs, or intramural basketball. These are fun, community-driven — and not cheap.
Behavioral Insight: When the economy is humming, people sign up for things that bring joy and social connection. When they’re nervous about their finances, these nonessential commitments are the first to go. That $75 kickball fee suddenly feels like a luxury…
Why It Matters: It reveals where discretionary income is being cut. People don’t just stop buying TVs or vacations — they cut the little joys too. And when joy becomes unaffordable, it says a lot about public sentiment and spending behavior.
Bottom Line
These oddball indicators might not replace GDP forecasts or central bank models — but they serve another purpose: capturing the human side of economics.
They reflect hesitation, aspiration, joy, and compromise — all things that make economic behavior worth studying in the first place. And sometimes, it’s those little signals — a canceled basketball season, a dusty bottle of champagne, or an unfinished shopping cart — that tell the biggest story.
